Gas above €100, Lagarde leaving early: Europe’s double squeeze, explained

Lagarde: leaving early

What happened (fact)

On 29 October the European Central Bank (ECB), which sets euro interest rates, said its president, Christine Lagarde, will step down on 7 February 2027. Her term was due to end on 31 October 2027, so she is leaving almost nine months early.

The ECB’s press release gives no reason. At her press conference that day she said, as reported by Reuters and the Guardian, that she wants “the freedom to engage on matters that are not monetary policy matters”.

Her successor will be appointed by the European Council, meeting as the leaders of euro-area countries, under Article 283(2) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, on a recommendation from EU finance ministers and after consulting the European Parliament and the ECB. Its president, António Costa, said the process would “proceed without delay”. On 30 October he said euro-area leaders would discuss the choice on 26–27 November (Bloomberg).

Gas: back above €100

What happened (fact)

TTF, Europe’s main wholesale gas price, is quoted in euros per megawatt-hour (MWh), a unit of energy. On 28 October it traded above €100/MWh during the day: Reuters said it “briefly traded at €100” at about 14:35 Paris time, and S&P Global recorded €100.425 at 16:03 Paris time. Data sites put its front-month settlement at €100.72, not an official ICE figure.

That is roughly triple the €31.96 at which TTF closed on 27 February 2026, before the US and Israeli strikes on Iran (our arithmetic).

EU gas storage was 74.93% full on 26 October, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE): the lowest for that date in any year since at least 2012, the earliest we could check. The previous low was 77.04% in 2021; a year ago it was 82.91%. On 28 October it was 74.89%. GIE’s latest figures can still be revised.

Qatar’s delayed cargoes

What happened (fact)

Qatar sells liquefied natural gas (LNG), gas cooled into a liquid for shipping. In March QatarEnergy declared force majeure (a clause excusing a supplier when events beyond its control stop deliveries) after halting output.

On 27 October Italy’s Edison, a buyer of Qatari gas, said QatarEnergy had extended force majeure on its contract to the end of December 2026. That makes 38 affected cargoes, about 5 billion cubic metres of gas. We found no statement from QatarEnergy on the extension.

Why leave now?

What the Guardian's reporting and one bank economist suggest (their opinion)

The Guardian reports that Lagarde has been tipped for the World Economic Forum, and relays speculation that Emmanuel Macron encouraged an early exit so a successor is chosen before France’s presidential election in April–May 2027. Holger Schmieding, an economist at the bank Berenberg, said the successor will be appointed while Macron is still president.

A sharper reading

What Philip Pilkington thinks (his opinion)

Philip Pilkington, co-host of the Multipolarity podcast, who argues for a “post-liberal” politics, suggested on X on 29 October that the timing is meant to keep France in control of the ECB, to win lenient bailout terms later. That is speculation. In another post, sharing a Bloomberg headline, he described Europe as sliding back into an end-of-days gas crisis.

What happened (fact)

Lagarde’s stated reason is freedom to speak, and the ECB presidency is not a national seat: euro-area leaders appoint, on a recommendation from EU finance ministers. None of the possible successors the Guardian names is French: Knot (Netherlands), Hernández de Cos and Calviño (Spain), Nagel (Germany). We found no euro-area bailout under discussion.

On gas, storage is at a record low for the time of year and EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen has said Europe “faces another energy crisis” (Euronews). But prices are well below the August 2022 peak of about €340 (Reuters; Euronews), EU demand is about 20% below pre-2022 levels (ACER, the EU energy regulators’ agency, via Euronews), and household tariffs have not yet jumped as in 2022 (Eurostat).

Was Germany’s euro entry rate too low?

What Andrew Collingwood thinks (his opinion)

Andrew Collingwood, also a Multipolarity co-host, wrote on X on 29 October, quoting Robin Brooks on Germany’s TARGET2 claims (balances between euro-area central banks), that these arose because Germany “entered the euro at too low a level vis the deutschmark” and held down labour costs with its Hartz reforms. The post he quoted ends by invoking Germany’s AfD party.

What other economists think (their opinion)

A more common critique runs the other way: in 2003 Hans-Werner Sinn, then president of Germany’s ifo institute, set out the view, which he credits to Milton Friedman, that Germany locked in an overvalued rate. Claims of German undervaluation usually concern its real exchange rate (adjusted for prices and wages) after the wage restraint of the 2000s, not the entry rate.

What happened (fact)

The rate was fixed at €1 = 1.95583 deutschmarks (ECB). That fact alone cannot settle whether it was too low.

What to watch next

What happened (scheduled dates)

• 2, 4 and 5 Novembernew ECB bank rates, Eurostat’s October inflation flash and the next Weekly Oil Bulletin.
• 26–27 Novembereuro-area leaders discuss Lagarde’s successor.
• End of DecemberEdison’s force majeure period ends.
• 7 February 2027Lagarde’s last day.

In summary

• Wholesale gas traded above €100 on 28 October, about triple its late-February level, with storage at a record low for the date.
• Lagarde leaves the ECB on 7 February 2027, almost nine months early.
• Claims about French control of the ECB, or Germany’s euro entry rate, are contested opinions.

This is not financial advice.