The Fed held rates. The viral clip stops before Warsh agreed with his questioner

What happened

What happened (fact)

On 28 October the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee, which sets US interest rates) held the federal funds rate (the overnight rate banks charge one another) in a range of 3.75% to 4%.

The vote was 10–2. Lisa D. Cook, a Fed Governor, and Beth M. Hammack, President of the Cleveland Fed, dissented: both wanted a quarter-point rise. Separately, Politico’s Victoria Guida asked whether Warsh or the Fed would be involved in a White House hearing on Cook’s future that she said was due next week; he replied: “Not to my knowledge.”

The statement said “Inflation remains elevated” and upgraded growth from “solid” to “strong”. It was a pause: on 16 September the Fed had raised rates by a quarter point, 12–0. Its September projections put the median official’s end-2026 rate at 4.1%, implying, on our reading, one more quarter-point rise this year. BEA’s advance estimate, released on 29 October, put third-quarter real GDP growth at an annual rate of 3.4%.

The question, and the clip

What happened (fact)

The first question came from Colby Smith of the New York Times: “There’s been essentially no progress toward the 2 percent inflation target.” Noting that, in her view, most of Warsh’s colleagues seemed ready to raise rates in December, she asked: “So why not just raise rates today?”

At 19:43 Paris time that evening, the X account @atrupar (Aaron Rupar) posted a 177-second excerpt. It had nearly 500,000 views by 14:30 Paris time on 30 October. The post shortened the question and added the poster’s opinion: “(Note how he never answers it!)”

We found no cuts inside the excerpt, but it ends about half a minute before Warsh’s concession.

What Warsh said, in full

What Kevin Warsh thinks (his view)

Warsh said price stability is “not about some fixed individual date on a calendar” and that the Fed had “doubled down” on 2%.

He pointed to September’s rise and said inflation expectations had “gone the right way”. The clip ends on: “So I feel good about those signposts.”

Then came the part the clip cut. “But if the crux of your question is, you haven’t delivered yet, you haven’t achieved price stability, you’re right about that. But we’re working on it.” Answering the next reporter, he said policy was “starting to work some, but there’s no firm conclusions”.

The political questions

What happened (fact)

Asked by James Rosen of Newsmax whether he agreed with a 7 October remark Rosen attributed to President Trump criticising the Fed’s Board, Warsh said he would not respond “to quotes from public officials”. Asked by Elizabeth Schulze of ABC News whether the midterms, six days away, had influenced the hold, he said “politics played no role in the decision”.

Inflation: how far from 2%?

What happened (fact)

The Fed’s 2% goal is measured by PCE (the personal consumption expenditures price index, a broad price gauge). In September 2026, PCE prices were 3.6% higher than a year earlier and core PCE (which leaves out volatile food and energy) 3.1% (BEA, released 29 October). In August they were 3.4% and 3.0%, against 2.7% and 2.9% in August 2025.

The CPI (consumer price index, from the BLS) rose 3.7% in the year to September 2026, against 3.0% a year earlier. Gasoline, up 34.2% on a year, accounted for over half of September’s monthly rise. One measure has improved: core CPI fell to 2.6% from 3.0%.

So the reporter’s premise holds on most measures. Warsh said inflation has been above target “for close to 6 years”; we checked, and PCE inflation has been above 2% every month since March 2021.

What the bond market did

What happened (fact)

A Treasury yield is the yearly return on lending to the US government.

Two windows (US Treasury daily figures):

• To the peak. From 15 September, the day before the rise, both the 10-year and 30-year yields climbed 31 basis points, to peaks of 5.31% (5 October) and 5.67% (7 October).
• To 28 October. They then stood at 5.05% and 5.37%, just 5 and 1 basis points above 15 September.

The 10-year had also risen 25 basis points in the two weeks before the September rise, and yields fell the day after it.

In September, Warsh linked rising long yields to “economic strength”, “competition for capital” for AI investment, and “geopolitics”.

What one analyst thinks (his opinion)

What Luke Gromen thinks (his opinion)

Luke Gromen, an interested party, runs FFTT, which sells a paid research letter; we used only his public posts. Late on 28 October he quote-posted the clip with an answer he invented for Warsh. In Gromen’s words, not Warsh’s: “Because when I raised rates 25 bps last month, LT UST yields took off like a scalded cat and that surprised me and freaked me out, so now I don’t know quite what to do.” Warsh never said this; on the record, he called the market effects broadly “consistent with my expectations”. In a reply, Gromen argued Warsh “was set up to fail”, because, in his view, the government needs “frothy” stock markets to generate enough growth and tax receipts to service its debt.

What happened (fact)

Some facts fit: long yields rose about 30 basis points in the three weeks after the rise and stayed above 5% for most of October. Others don’t: yields were rising beforehand, fell the next day and ended near where they started. The September rise was a 12–0 committee decision, not Warsh’s alone. We cannot know what he privately thinks.

Axel Merk, an investment-firm head (also an interested party), replied that “Warsh did answer the question in great detail”.

What to watch next

What happened (scheduled dates)

• 10 November, 14:30 ParisOctober CPI.
• 25 November, 14:30 ParisOctober PCE inflation (BEA).
• 8–9 Decemberthe next Fed meeting, with new projections.

In summary

• The Fed held at 3.75–4% on 28 October by 10–2; two officials wanted a rise.
• “Essentially no progress” was the reporter’s phrase. Warsh gave no specific reason against a rise that day, but the viral clip cut his admission that the Fed has not yet achieved price stability.
• Long-term yields rose in the weeks after September’s hike but were back near their starting level by 28 October.

This is not financial advice.